PUBLIC MARKET DASHBOARD
As of June 30, 2026.
S&P/TSX Composite Index
▲+9.9%
Year to date
NASDAQ Composite Index
▲+12.8%
Year to date
Whitehorn Software & Tech Index (WST)
▼-19.7%
Year to date
Key Quarterly Highlights
APR. 20
BlackBerry (TSX:BB) expands partnership with NVIDIA that will allow its developers to build and deploy AI systems for NVIDIA's IGX Thor platform.
MAY 7
Toronto based fintech Spendsafe, a provider of prepaid credit cards and financial literacy tools for kids and teens, to list on the TSX Venture Exchange.
MAY 11
CAE (TSX:CAE) is seeking strategic alternatives for its aviation software business, Flightscape that helps airlines manage their operations.
MAY 21
Intuit (TSX:INTU) to lay off 17% of its global workforce or ~3,000 employees to drive durable growth over the long term.
JUNE 18
According to the 2026 Global Startup Ecosystem Report (GSER), Calgary was the fastest growing tech ecosystem in Canada.
The BlackBerry Resurgence
Forget the BlackBerry keyboards and the 2010s nostalgia. In the first half of 2026, BlackBerry (TSX:BB) put in a breakout performance on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Shaking off years of sideway trading and being a meme stock, the company’s stock climbed by over 240% in the first six months of 2026, proving that its multi-year strategy to pivot into “Physical AI” and embedded software is finally paying off.
We jump into the resurgence below, built for business leaders who value execution over hype.
H1 2026 Stock Performance
H1 2026 Stock Performance
The chart below maps out BlackBerry stock’s trajectory from January 1 to June 30, 2026. After starting the year at $5.22, a sequence of positive developments including contract wins culminated in a better-than-expected earnings release on June 25, resulting in the stock price closing at $17.91 on June 30, a gain of 243%.
YTD Return
+243%
Did you know?
BlackBerry's QNX system is deployed in the top 10 global automakers including Toyota, Honda, GM, BMW, Volkswagen and Ford.
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What's Driving the Resurgence
BlackBerry's current rally wasn't driven by retail meme investors. Instead, we observe institutional money backing the stock as they react to a structural shift in its core fundamentals.
1. QNX Software
2. Geopolitical Cybersecurity Inflows
3. Breaking the 9-Year Cash Flow Curse
Operational Impact
·QNX real-time operating system has become the gold standard for software-defined vehicles and industrial robotics.
·QNX is deeply integrated with global chipmakers.
·With trade tensions rising, governments are increasingly prioritizing digital sovereignty especially among regulated industries.
·BlackBerry's Secured Communications business unit was awarded multiple significant sovereign renewals, including a federal contract until 2033.
·Reported Q1 2027 results on June 25: revenue beat by 11%; EBITDA of $36MM was higher than the $14–$22MM range expected.
·Raised full year FY2027 guidance higher.
Outcome
Achieve the Rule of 40 for SaaS companies: the sum of annual revenue growth rate (%) and profit margin (%) is 40% or more.
Established sticky, high margin recurring software licensing revenue that protects against broader economic cyclicality.
This quarter marks BlackBerry's first positive operating cash flow quarter in nine years, a remarkable milestone for its turnaround plans.
We believe BlackBerry's stock is currently trading at a premium with analysts revising their models upwards. We expect some sideways consolidation throughout the remainder of 2026 as the market digests the exponential run-up. The company's stock has the potential to perform better depending on its ability to penetrate into advanced medical devices and industrial automation platforms as part of its ongoing growth initiatives.
Why the USD is Beating the Loonie - Even with Oil Up
If your software or tech business sells into the US or you deal with suppliers south of the border, note the following: the higher oil, higher Loonie relationship doesn't necessarily hold anymore. Instead, it's about the gap between Canadian and US interest rates. We dive deeper into the data below:
Past: The Loonie Moved with Oil (2000–2017)
0.9258
Correlation
Jan 2000 – Dec 2017
What does this mean?
Oil up = CAD strong; Oil down = CAD weak
·Historically, the Canadian dollar acted as a prominent commodity currency.
·As crude oil represents a foundational share of our exports to our largest trading partner south of the border, the CAD/USD FX rate was naturally responsive to WTI movements.
·When oil prices rose, a combination of capital inflow to the Canadian energy sector and the demand for Canadian oil would boost CAD demand.
·On the other hand, global oil oversupply or demand collapses, as evident in 2008 and 2014, typically led to a CAD depreciation.
The relationship was less evident from 2018 onwards. From Jan. 2018 to May 2026, we calculated a correlation of 0.1102 between the two variables. It was increasingly evident that there were other driving forces behind the weakening Loonie, especially from 2024 onwards. Our investigations led us to an increasingly prominent factor, the divergence in monetary policies between both countries.
The Split
In the early 2020s, both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve hiked rates in lockstep until 2023. Since Q2 2024, there has been a material divergence in monetary policy between both central banks.
·The Bank of Canada started cutting rates in June 2024, which signaled the beginning of the divergence.
·The Federal Reserve only began cutting rates in Aug. 2024. In addition, the Bank of Canada reduced rates further compared to its U.S. counterpart since then.
·The current spread between the two nations is 1.50 percentage points.
How a Rate Gap Resulted in a Weaker Loonie
The chain of cause and effect is summarized below.
Step 1
🏦
US Bonds Pay More
A 90-day US T-bill yields ~1.5pp more than the Canadian equivalent. Same risk, better return.
Step 2
💰
Capital Chases Yield
Pension funds, banks, and investors worldwide shift money out of CAD assets into higher-paying USD assets.
Step 3
💱
To Buy US Bonds, Sell CAD First
Every shift requires converting CAD to USD. This selling pressure pushes USD/CAD up directly.
Step 4
📉
CAD Weakens — Even If Oil Rises
Rate-driven capital flows are larger and faster than oil-trade flows, so they dominate currency pricing.
0.4682
Correlation
Rate Spread vs. USD/CAD
What does this mean?
Interest rate spread is a better predictor of USD/CAD today than oil prices.
Why Canada Cut Rates Faster than the US
Below, we review three factors behind the divergence:
01
Canadian Economy Cooled Faster
Weaker Canadian GDP and softening labour market as key indicators.
BofC cut rates 9 times between June 2024 and Oct. 2025 for a 275-basis points reduction combined.
02
US Inflation Remained Hotter
Persistent core inflation and tariff-driven price pressure in the U.S. kept the Fed more cautious.
The Fed paused rate cuts for the most of 2025 despite pressure from Trump, while Canadian inflation returned to target earlier in 2024.
03
Tariffs Hit Canada Harder
US imposed tariffs weighed heavily on Canadian exports and business investment given high Canadian exposure to the US market.
The BofC was forced to be more accommodating to absorb the economic shock whereas the Fed had less reason to ease aggressively.
Bottom Line for Canadian Software & Tech Companies
If your business carries USD costs, debt, or receivables, keep an eye out for the BofC-Fed spread when determining your USD exposure. With a rate hike expected in the US in H2 2026 while the BofC maintains status quo, we anticipate the Loonie to perform weaker than the USD for the remainder of 2026.
Financing
We summarized select Canadian tech financing transactions announced this past quarter:
Developer Capital
Lastwall
Announced date
•May 12, 2026
•May 27, 2026
Funding
•$5MM to invest in AI startups.
•$16MM Series A to scale up offerings.
Business description
•AI-focused early-stage startup investor.
•ID verification software provider.
Company HQ
•Montreal, QC
•Fredericton, NB
Company website
SensorUp
Maneva
Announced date
•June 3, 2026
•June 12, 2026
Funding
•Undisclosed growth financing.
•US$27MM Series A to scale North American presence and to expand into Asia.
Business description
•Cleantech software firm integrating data across assets in heavy industry fields.
•AI intelligence software provider for manufacturing functions.
Company HQ
•Calgary, AB
•Toronto, ON
Company website
Select Merger & Acquisition Transactions
Notable Canadian software & technology transactions in Q2 2026.
Date
Acquirer
Acquirer HQ
Target
Target HQ
Apr. 2026
Imdex (ASX:IMD)
Australia
Krux Analytics
Calgary, AB
$23MM acquisition of remaining 60% equity stake not owned in drilling software provider to expand drill-site data capture and analytics capabilities.
Apr. 2026
PBS Systems
Calgary, AB
Dealer Image Pro
Sacramento, CA
Acquisition of automotive inventory merchandising solutions provider to complement dealership operations offerings.
Apr. 2026
Mphasis (NSE:MPHASIS)
India
Theory and Practice Business Intelligence
Vancouver, BC
$10MM acquisition of decision intelligence company with up to $20MM in earnouts to add causal inference and behavioural economics layer to its Neol AI platform.
May 2026
Plenary Americas
Los Angeles, CA
Information Services Corp
Regina, SK
Acquisition of registry and information management services provider to accelerate growth across Canada and the U.S.
June 2026
Novus Health
Toronto, ON
GoeVisit virtual care platform
Vancouver, BC
Acquisition of virtual care platform provider to expand capabilities into virtual primary care and connected healthcare support.
June 2026
Hexagon
Calgary, AB
Planit Canada
Hudson, QC
Acquisition of reseller of Cabinet Vision, a woodworking software as well as related support and training services to expand direct presence in the Canadian woodworking software market.
June 2026
Redwood AI (CSE:AIRX)
Vancouver, BC
Quantum.IQ Technologies
Vancouver, BC
Acquisition of AI-driven quantum cybersecurity software developer to expand tech platform and to complement AI deployments.
June 2026
Mecka AI
Toronto, ON
Docula
Vancouver, BC
Acquisition of AI-data processing engineering provider for medical billing and auditing.
Check out more transactions on our website.
-40%
Q2 2026 vs. Q1 2026
-15%
Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025
Let's talk about
your next move.
Whitehorn Capital provides sale of business, financing and merger & acquisition advisory services to Western Canadian software and technology companies. To discuss this quarter's findings, reach our team below.
Whitehorn Expert
Ray Chia, CFA
Address
3332 20 St SW Suite 406, Calgary, AB T2T 6S1
All financial data has been sourced from LSEG Workspace. This report is prepared by Whitehorn Capital Inc. for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice. Figures may include forecasts and are subject to change without notice.
Whitehorn Capital Inc.
