Market Dashboard
Returns from January 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026.
Performance Trends
Average revenue growth and margin outlook by sub-sector.
Source: YCharts. 2026F and 2027F are forecasts.
Higher oil.Costlier steel.
What higher oil prices and steel tariffs mean for your oilfield services business, and the three things worth doing in the next six months.
Two forces pulling in opposite directions
The Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin has just come through one of its busiest drilling seasons in over a decade. Crude is well above the price your E&P customers built their budgets on, and energy was left out of every round of U.S. tariffs announced last quarter, including the latest at the end of August.
Steel is the other side of the ledger. Input costs have climbed, and in our own deal flow we are seeing buyers ask how steel costs are landing on margins. Below, we work through what both forces mean for your business.
Where oil sits against the budget
Oil has been flirting with US$100 since the Strait of Hormuz choke-off in late February. The 2026 average is tracking to US$75, about 23% above the US$61 most budgets were built on.
WTI crude, budget assumptions against actual
US$ per barrel
The shaded band marks US$70–75, the level at which the basin gets busy.
Sources: Alberta Budget 2026 and Q1 fiscal update; ATB Financial; Enverus; CAOEC.
Higher prices have turned into real activity
E&P companies are adding production capacity to take advantage of the commodity price. That shows up directly in wells and rigs.
Wells drilled in the month
May 2025 against May 2026
Rigs working
May 2025, May 2026 and entering Q3
Source: CAOEC, June 2026.
E&P customers are turning the windfall into stronger balance sheets and shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends. The prudent approach to capital budgets is still in place, with producers waiting on additional major projects and pipeline capacity nationwide.
What the steel measures actually charge
In response to U.S.–Canada trade tensions, Ottawa put a series of measures in place to protect Canadian steelmakers. Four of them reach your input costs.
Rates that apply to steel coming into Canada
Percent added at the border
What it means for each service line
Our read on how higher oil and higher steel costs land across energy services.
| Service line | Our assessment | Risk to watch |
|---|---|---|
| High steel exposure Drilling services |
Rig utilization and day rates are both rising. | Drill pipe is the most tariff-exposed purchase you make. |
| Medium Well servicing |
Tends to follow drilling services. Service rig hours up 3.2% in 2026. | Steel tubing and rod costs may erode margins. |
| Medium Field services |
High demand for pipefitting, welding and mechanical expertise against a tight labour pool. | Consumables, fittings and flanges carry 25% tariffs. |
| High steel exposure Fabrication |
Able to pass steel cost increases to end customers for now, less certain going forward. | Fixed-price backlog quoted before September, on steel procured after. |
| High steel exposure Machining |
Squeezed on both inputs and tooling. | U.S. steel moved to 25–50% on Sep. 8. Watch for further changes. |
| High steel exposure Pipeline & facility construction |
The widest range of outcomes, dependent on major projects and new pipeline capacity. | Potential tariffs on line pipe. |
| Low Logistics |
Still excess capacity, though it is narrowing. | Keep fleet purchases and upgrades conservative. |
| Low Abandonment |
Steady, recurring revenue driven by regulation. | None material. |
Demand outlook against steel tariff exposure
Our positioning of each service line over the next 12 months.
What we are hearing from service providers
Three questions come up in almost every conversation.
Can I pass the steel cost through?
Will energy continue to be exempted?
Is there relief available to private energy service providers?
Is this a succession window?
Many of the energy services owners we work with have spent a decade waiting for an exit window. The current one is driven by structural factors. Producers want fewer vendors delivering bundled scopes, which pushes larger platforms to buy capability rather than build it. That makes specialized, well-run private energy services providers the natural targets.
Selling is not the only option. The same conditions support a partial sale, a recapitalization to take risk off your personal balance sheet, or an acquisition of your own.
Three things worth doing in the next six months
Whichever direction you are leaning
How ready is your business?
Take our scorecard to see where you stand on the factors buyers and lenders look at first.
Select Merger & Acquisition Transactions
Notable Canadian energy services transactions this past quarter.
| Date | Acquirer | Acquirer HQ | Target | Target HQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | Elevate Energy Group | Calgary, AB | Dynamysk Commissioning Services team | Calgary, AB |
| Acquisition of the E&I commissioning services team focused on commissioning, completions and turnarounds to strengthen offerings. | ||||
| July 2026 | Ensign Energy Services (TSX:ESI) | Calgary, AB | Citadel Drilling | Calgary, AB |
| US$65MM acquisition of drilling rigs operator with 6 high-spec AC drilling rigs to broaden client base and increase Permian capacity by 20%. | ||||
| Aug. 2026 | InterPro Pipe & Steel | Calgary, AB | K&K Prairie Recycling Services | Camrose, AB |
| Acquisition of scrap metal recycling business by its division, InterPro Recycling to strengthen scrap supply chain for steel production and to support future melt capacity growth. | ||||
| July 2026 | Blackstone Energy Transition Partners | New York, NY | DarkVision Technologies | North Vancouver, BC |
| Acquisition of advanced ultrasound imaging technologies provider to inspect critical industrial and energy infrastructure with ~300 employees from Koch Engineered Solutions. | ||||
| Aug. 2026 | KUDO Energy Services | Bonnyville, AB | Lincoln County Oilfield Services | Athabasca, AB |
| Acquisition of pipeline, facility and civil construction solutions provider to expand geographic footprint and customer base, as well as strengthen capabilities and ability to serve clients across Western Canada. | ||||
| Aug. 2026 | FluidPRO Oilfield Services | Clairmont, AB | Canadian Energy Group's Stimulation Services division | Calgary, AB |
| Acquisition of the stimulation services division from Canadian Energy Group to complement its transportation, acid hauling and blending, vacuum and hydrovac, rentals and logistics divisions. | ||||
| Aug. 2026 | Undisclosed buyer | Undisclosed | Westbridge Renewable Energy's (TSXV:WEB) Red Willow project | Stettler, AB |
| Acquisition of Red Willow solar-plus-storage project with a solar power plant of up to 225 MWac and a proposed 100 MW battery energy storage system. | ||||
| Sep. 2026 | Noralta Technologies | Calgary, AB | ARG Group | Lloydminster, AB |
| Acquisition of electrical and gas fitting services provider to increase geographical presence and to deepen offerings. | ||||
