Food & Beverage Industry Report
Whitehorn Capital's Food & Beverage Industry Report presents performance trends, economic drivers, and transaction activity observed during the past quarter in Canada and the US, with a focus on Western Canada.
Whitehorn's Food & Beverage Industry Report includes companies that manufacture or process bakery & grain products, confectionery, dairy products, frozen foods, meat & seafood, organic foods & produce and prepared & preserved foods products within North America.
Average Industry Revenue Growth
Average EBITDA Margin
Key Quarterly Highlights
- JULY 14The US proposes a 8.26% tariff on most fresh Canadian mushrooms following a US Department of Commerce probe into dumping practices..
- JULY 16The Bank of Canada predicts food inflation to remain high throughout the remainder of 2026, citing higher fuel and farming costs as a result of the US-Iran war.
- AUG. 19A class action lawsuit has been filed against Loblaws, Metro and Sobey's for selling maple syrup advertised as pure but were in fact, combined with cane sugar.
- AUG. 20The federal and BC provincial governments announced a joint investment of $106.5MM over five years to help restore salmon habitat and to support BC's fish and seafood sectors.
- SEP. 4According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, global food prices rose in August 2026 to the highest level since November 2022, citing climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and disrupted trade logistics.
- SEP. 15Farm Credit Canada announced a $150MM investment in Velocity Agri-Capital Partners Fund, an agri-food focused venture capital fund backing Canadian agri-food companies to expand into Southeast Asia.
Performance Trends by Sector
Average Revenue Growth
Bakery & Grain Mill Products
Confectionery
Dairy Products
Frozen Foods
Meats & Seafoods
Organic Foods & Produce
Prepared & Preserved Foods
Average EBITDA Margin
Bakery & Grain Mill Products
Confectionery
Dairy Products
Frozen Foods
Meats & Seafoods
Organic Foods & Produce
Prepared & Preserved Foods
Private label takes the shelf.Brands keep the margin.
Private label means products sold under a grocer's own name. Brands are sold under the maker's name. Where your products fall between the two shapes your pricing power and, in the end, what a buyer will pay for your business.
of consumer packaged goods (CPG) sales in Canada, by dollar value, are private label.
sales growth for brands, compared with private label.
higher average price for branded products than private label, across all CPG categories.
Source: NIQ, Finding Harmony on the Shelf (Canada, 2025). Share and growth for the 52 weeks to September 2024; average price for the 52 weeks to December 2024.
The price gap depends on your aisle
Branded drinks and alcohol sell at a price about 25% higher than private label, on average. The gap narrows to about 13% for shelf-stable food and 4% for snacks and candy.
Source: NIQ, Finding Harmony on the Shelf (Canada, 2025), p. 30. Average price per unit of all branded products vs. all private-label products in each department, 52 weeks to December 2024. NIQ describes these figures as directional.
EBITDA margin: food makers vs. the largest private-label maker
Sources: Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern, Margins by Sector (US), Food Processing, January 2026. Adjusted EBITDA as a share of sales from company results: Maple Leaf Foods 12.2% (2025), Saputo 9.5% (fiscal year to March 2026), Premium Brands 9.0% (2025), TreeHouse Foods 10.1% (2024).
How buyers see each model
Brand owner
Buyers pay for: loyal customers and the ability to raise prices.
Buyers discount: heavy spending on retailer promotions, or a brand known in only one region.
Private-label maker
Buyers pay for: low costs, scale and long-term retailer contracts.
Buyers discount: contracts that go back out to bid every year, or relying on one large grocer.
Co-packer
Buyers pay for: capabilities that are hard to copy, and plants running close to capacity.
Buyers discount: short contracts and idle production lines.
How to shift your mix
- Grow a branded line.Private label keeps the plant busy, but even a small brand that's growing can raise what the whole business is worth.
- Specialize.Certifications such as organic or allergen-free make you harder to replace.
- Lock in contracts.Multi-year agreements that transfer to a new owner make your sales volume worth more to a buyer.
50% tariffs are back.Food and drink are in the crossfire.
This quarter brought a new round of U.S. tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs, with alcohol and dairy among the hardest hit.
What happened this quarter
The U.S. imposes 50% tariffs on about $27.6B of Canadian goods, including alcohol and dairy.
Ottawa announces a $7.5B support package, including a $2B Canada Strong Diversification Fund.
Canada responds with 15% to 50% tariffs on $27.6B of U.S. goods, including dairy, cheese and seafood.
Tariff relief is available on U.S. inputs used in food processing and packaging.
Food exports to the U.S. are falling
Canada's exports of farm, fishing and intermediate food products to the U.S. peaked at $29.1 billion in 2023 and have dropped in each of the two years since, including a 4.8% decline in 2025. Over the same year, exports to all other markets rose 2.2%.
Exports to the U.S., $ billions
Farm, fishing and intermediate food products, with the change from the year before
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To the U.S. | $22.4B | $27.0B | $29.1B | $29.0B | $27.6B |
| Change | – | +20.7% | +7.9% | −0.5% | −4.8% |
| All markets | $51.5B | $57.8B | $61.6B | $59.1B | $58.4B |
| Change | – | +12.2% | +6.6% | −4.1% | −1.3% |
| U.S. share | 43.4% | 46.7% | 47.2% | 49.0% | 47.2% |
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 12-10-0171-01 (customs-based exports, farm, fishing and intermediate food products).
Your exposure at a glance
You export alcohol or dairy to the U.S. Check now whether your products are on the new 50% tariff list.
You buy U.S. dairy, cheese or seafood. Canada's counter-tariffs will push up what you pay for these inputs.
You use U.S. packaging or ingredients. Most food cans used in Canada are imported, mainly from the U.S. Apply for tariff relief (remission) on what you bring in.
You sell Canadian-made products in Canada. Counter-tariffs make competing U.S. products more expensive here, which gives grocers and shoppers a reason to switch to yours.
What owners should do now
- Check your tariff codes.Match every product and input against both the U.S. and Canadian tariff lists.
- Claim relief.Apply for remission and look into the new diversification fund.
- Model the downside.Buyers will test how much of your business depends on the U.S. Know those numbers before they ask.
Write it off.All of it.
Ottawa is proposing a tax change called the Productivity Mega Deduction. It would let food and beverage makers deduct the full cost of most new equipment in the year they buy it, instead of claiming a bit each year for a decade. Here is what it would mean for your business.
Not to be confused with the Productivity Super-Deduction from Budget 2025, which already offers a temporary full write-off on manufacturing and processing machinery and buildings. The Mega Deduction goes further: it is permanent, and it reaches well beyond the production floor.
What you could write off in year one on $1 million of new equipment
General equipment, first taxation year
Example uses general equipment written down at 20% a year, the kind of purchase that sits outside the production line. Production machinery already had a faster write-off. The figure for your own purchase depends on the type of asset, so confirm it with your accountant.
The short version
Today, when you buy something like a refrigerated trailer or new warehouse equipment, you write off part of the cost each year over many years. Under the proposal you would write off the entire cost in the year you start using it, so your tax bill drops sharply in the year you invest. In a business that runs on thin margins, that cash can pay for the next line upgrade or automation project.
Prime Minister Carney announced the Productivity Mega Deduction on 15 September 2026 and the Department of Finance released draft legislation the same day. It is not law yet.
You would not get more. You would get it sooner.
This is the part people misread. You always got to deduct the full cost of your equipment eventually. What changes is the timing, and in a business, cash today is worth considerably more than the same cash spread over ten years.
Source: Department of Finance Canada backgrounder, 15 September 2026.
What qualifies
Most of what a food or beverage business buys would be covered. The exclusions are the shorter list.
Write it off in full
- Processing, packaging and bottling machinery
- Refrigeration and other plant equipment
- Delivery trucks and trailers, including refrigerated units
- Forklifts and warehouse equipment
- Software and computers
- Patents and research spending, such as new product development
Written off slowly, as before
- Buildings, including plants, warehouses and cold-storage facilities
- Goodwill and licences when you buy another business
- Passenger cars, and rental or leased vehicles, unless the vehicle is new and was assembled in Canada
Eligibility is set by the tax category an asset falls into, not by what you call it. Two similar-looking purchases can land on opposite sides of this line, so check each one with your accountant.
Select Merger & Acquisition Transactions
Notable Canadian food & beverage transactions in the past quarter.
Whitehorn Capital
Sale of business, merger & acquisition, and financing advisory for Western Canadian business owners navigating growth, transition, and succession. Helping clients achieve their transaction objectives since 2008.
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