Quarterly

Canadian Manufacturing
Market Intelligence Report

Q3 2026

Whitehorn Capital's Canadian Manufacturing Industry Report presents performance trends and transaction activity observed in this sector in Canada. All financial data has been sourced from YCharts.

Whitehorn Capital — Corporate Finance & Advisory

Whitehorn's Canadian Manufacturing Industry Report consists of Canadian companies active in Materials Conversion & Packaging, Industrial & Agricultural Equipment, Consumer Products, Transportation Equipment, and Building Materials.

Average Industry Revenue Growth
7.8%
7.8%
1.6%
10.8%
3.9%
2023
2024
2025
2026F
2027F
Average EBITDA Margin
12.5%
11.0%
11.9%
14.1%
14.8%
2023
2024
2025
2026F
2027F
Market Dashboard
Year-to-date returns as of September 30, 2026
S&P/TSX Composite Index
▲+11.1%
Whitehorn Manufacturing Index
▲+8.8%
S&P 500
▲+11.8%
Key Quarterly Highlights
July 17
Carrier Forest Products will indefinitely curtail operations at its Big River, SK sawmill on October 16, affecting 117 workers. The company cited weak market conditions, a declining loonie and the impact of wildfires.
Sep. 8
The federal government imposes 15–20% retaliatory tariffs on $20B of U.S. goods, including steel, aluminum and farm machinery. The move responds to the 50% U.S. tariffs on $20B of Canadian goods implemented on August 21.
Sep. 9
The federal government extends the fuel excise tax relief, in place since April 20, 2026, to January 31, 2027. A reduced rate of 50% of the regular excise tax will then apply from February 1 to March 31, 2027.
Sep. 16
Calgary-based startup Cura closes a US$10MM raise to scale its electrochemical process for low-carbon cement, which cuts emissions from cement production by 30–85%.
 
Tariff the Steel, Free the Part | Whitehorn Capital

Tariff the steel.Free the part.

If you run a manufacturing business in Canada, you may be paying a bigger tariff on the steel you buy than your competitors pay on the finished parts they ship in. Here is how that happens, and what it means for your shop.

The tariff Canada charges when each item comes in

Percent added to the item's cost at the border

Rates as of September 2026. Canada charges only one steel surtax per product, so these do not stack. Some finished steel goods from the U.S. are also on Canada's September 8 list and pay more than 25%. Check the rate for your own product.

It started with three frustrated owners

On separate occasions, we talked about tariffs with the owners of privately held machining shops in Alberta, Ontario and Saskatchewan. All three were frustrated with the current rules, and all three asked a version of the same question. Why pay a tariff on raw steel brought into Canada, when a finished steel part made offshore can come in for less, or for nothing?

At Whitehorn Capital, we dug into the rules to find out. If you buy steel and sell what you make from it, here is what we found.

How the rules were stacked, one layer at a time

Each step made sense on its own. Put together, they hit the steel your shop buys the hardest.

Canada's steel tariff changes, 2025 to 2026

Red dots raised costs for Canadian manufacturers. Orange dots gave some relief.

  1. Canada adds a 25% tariff on $12.6 billion of U.S. steel.

  2. Canada limits steel from overseas. Steel over the limit pays a 50% tariff.

  3. Canada drops most tariffs on U.S. goods. The steel tariff stays.

  4. First 25% tariff on some finished steel products. Overseas steel limits get tighter.

  5. The tariff break for manufacturers ended Jan. 31. You now pay the full tariff on U.S. steel.

  6. Ottawa waives the tariff on more U.S. steel that Canada doesn't make.

  7. Canada matches U.S. tariffs on $27.6 billion of U.S. goods. Steel is on that list at 50%.

Costs go up for Canadian manufacturersSome relief

Then the supply of lower-tariff steel shrank

From June to December 2025, Canada put limits on raw steel from overseas, while most finished steel products faced no new tariff at all. Then in December, Ottawa tightened those limits further, narrowing where you can buy without paying a penalty.

How much overseas steel can come in before the 50% tariff starts

The limit is a share of what each country shipped to Canada in 2024

Countries without a trade deal with Canada
Countries with a trade deal (not the U.S. or Mexico)
Limit before Dec. 26, 2025Limit after Dec. 26, 2025

What this means when you buy: if a country without a trade deal shipped 100 tonnes of steel to Canada in 2024, only 20 tonnes now come in at the normal rate. Once that is used up, your order pays a 50% tariff.

These limits apply to raw steel from overseas. Raw steel from the U.S. and Mexico has no volume limit at all. Instead, U.S. raw steel pays Canada's tariff on every tonne. Mexican raw steel pays no tariff and has no limit.

Two ways to serve the same Canadian customer

Same finished part. Same Canadian buyer. Two very different tariff bills, and only one of them lands on you.

And selling south costs more again

Sell that same part to a U.S. customer instead, and you get hit a second time. The U.S. charges its own tariffs at its border, up to 50% on steel goods. That is the double squeeze owners keep describing to us. A tariff on the steel coming in, and a tariff on the product going out.

What it looks like on the shop floor

Three privately held Canadian manufacturers, in their own words. You will likely recognize the problem.

SK

Bit Service Company

Saskatoon. Mining equipment.

Bit Service buys more raw steel from the U.S. than the company sells back into the U.S. So Canada's tariffs cost Bit Service more than the U.S. tariffs do.

Management spent two weeks stocking up on American steel before the September 2026 tariff increase.

“…does affect our competitiveness from a pricing standpoint.”

Scott Bahr, CEO
Global News, Sept. 2026

MB

Hunter Wire

Winnipeg. Steel wire parts for ice rinks.

U.S. tariffs raise the price of Hunter Wire's rink products for its American customers. The company also has no choice but to buy some of its steel from the U.S., so it now pays Canada's tariff on that steel too.

The president's first choice for government help would be no Canadian tariff on that steel at all.

“There will be job losses and that sadly is unavoidable.”

David Koss, president
CBC News, Aug. 2026

ON

Wellmaster

Tillsonburg. Pipe parts.

Wellmaster needs a specialty steel that no Canadian mill makes. The company still had to pay Canada's tariff on it, a tariff meant to push buyers toward Canadian steel that doesn't exist here.

After Wellmaster and industry groups pushed for a fix, Ottawa waived the tariff on more of these steel types in June 2026.

“Our competitiveness is being eroded in our own domestic market…”

James White, CEO
The Logic, May 2026

Help exists, but it's slow

You can ask Ottawa to waive the tariff on steel you can't buy in Canada. By spring 2026, most of those requests were still waiting for an answer.

Tariff relief requests still waiting for a decision

Requests to Finance Canada, March 2025 to April 2026

1,611

requests filed in about a year. Before the trade war, Finance Canada got only a handful a year.

Ottawa widened relief for some steel in June 2026. That helps, but you still have to apply and wait. It is worth checking whether your grades are now covered.

Who actually feels it

Far more Canadians work in businesses like yours than in the mills that make the steel.

Jobs in Canada

Number of workers

7×more jobs in the shops that use steel than in the mills that make it

Steel jobs: Canadian Steel Producers Association. Metal parts and products: Prime Minister's Office backgrounder, November 2025.

Construction companies hurting from tariffs

Share of companies saying each set of tariffs hurt them a lot

Canadian Construction Association, Winter 2026 Economic Insights report.

Why this hurts in the long run

When steel costs more to bring in than finished parts, the rules protect the steel mill and squeeze the business that turns steel into products. Owner-operated shops feel it first, because they have the least room to absorb it.

Your margin shrinks, because you can't pass a 50% steel cost on to your customers.
Your next machine, and the jobs that come with it, go where steel is cheaper to work with.
Your skilled people leave, and they are slow and costly to replace.
And steel mills lose their own Canadian customers.

What we think a fairer system looks like

This part is our opinion. We believe Canada can back its steel mills and its private manufacturers at the same time, and that these five changes would go a long way. If they match what you are seeing in your own business, they are worth raising with your MP and your industry association.

  • Don't charge more on steel than on finished partsA finished steel product should pay at least the same tariff as the steel inside it.
  • Don't tariff steel Canada can't makeKeep and widen the June 2026 relief, so you don't pay on steel you can't buy here.
  • Answer relief requests fastAn owner managing payroll and cash flow can't wait months for a decision.
  • Keep the list of finished products up to dateAdd the machined and welded parts Canadian shops already make.
  • Make existing programs easier to useMany owner-run firms don't know about duty relief programs, or find them too hard to use.

Worth checking in your own business

A few questions we would be asking if we ran a shop that buys steel today.

Do you know the tariff code for every steel product you buy? The rate depends on the code, not the description on the invoice.
Are any of your grades covered by the June 2026 relief? If Canada doesn't make what you buy, you may no longer owe the tariff.
Do your quotes hold if steel costs move again? The timeline above shows seven changes in eighteen months.
And are you competing against finished parts that pay less than your raw material? That is the pattern we keep hearing about.

Select Merger & Acquisition Transactions

Notable Canadian manufacturing transactions this past quarter.

Date Acquirer Acquirer HQ Target Target HQ
Apr. 2026 Metrie Vancouver, BC Certain assets of Northstar/TruBilt Doors St. Thomas, ON
Acquisition of door fabrication, hanging and finishing assets in Eastern Canada from division of Cornerstone Building Brands to expand door manufacturing and service capabilities.
Apr. 2026 PFM Capital and BDC Growth Equity Partners Canada West Coast Machinery Langley, BC
Acquisition of manufacturer and distributor of custom service truck bodies and hydraulic excavator attachments via Work Truck West and ShearForce Equipment.
May 2026 Maverick Aviation Group Sherwood Park, AB Genaire Niagara, ON
Acquisition of aerospace engineering and manufacturing company specializing in aircraft fuel systems, ground support equipment and OEM to expand national footprint and technical capabilities.
June 2026 Decisive Dividend (TSXV:DE) Kelowna, BC Be Fire Belgium
$19.9MM acquisition of specialty hearth manufacturer of wood-burning stoves, fireplaces, and fireplace inserts as add-on to its hearth vertical.
June 2026 Canfor (TSX:CFP) Vancouver, BC CanPinkwood's I-joist business Calgary, AB
$8MM acquisition of engineered wood joists manufacturer for residential, multi-family, and commercial construction.
June 2026 Buhler Versatile Winnipeg, MB ATLAS Group Germany
Acquisition of German construction machinery manufacturer to strengthen European market position.
June 2026 TerraVest Industries (TSX:TVK) Toronto, ON Jet Peinture Plus Quebec City, QC
Acquisition of company specializing in propane tank refurbishment and tank recertification.
June 2026 Ballard Power Systems (TSX:BLDP) Vancouver, BC GeoPura United Kingdom
£301MM acquisition of zero-emission hydrogen-based power solutions provider to increase end-to-end capabilities.

Check out more transactions on our website.

Subsector Q2 2026 Q1 2026
Rubber & Plastics63
Fabricated Metals, Milling & Building Products610
Industrial & Commercial Machinery119
Transportation Equipment169
Miscellaneous Manufacturing2821
Total6752
+29%
Q2 2026 vs. Q1 2026
-23%
Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025

Let's talk about your next move.

Whitehorn Capital provides sale of business, financing, and merger & acquisition services to Western Canadian private manufacturing companies. To discuss this quarter's findings, reach our team below.

Phone
587 889 4366
Podcast
Whitehorn Expert
Ray Chia, CFA
Address
3332 20 St SW Suite 406, Calgary, AB T2T 6S1

All financial data has been sourced from LSEG Workspace. This report is prepared by Whitehorn Capital Inc. for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice. Figures may include forecasts and are subject to change without notice.