Whitehorn Capital · Quarterly Report

Canadian Manufacturing Market Intelligence Report

Q2 2026

Whitehorn Capital's Canadian Manufacturing Industry Report presents performance trends and transaction activity observed in this sector in Canada. All financial data has been sourced from LSEG Workspace.

Market Performance

Whitehorn's Canadian Manufacturing Industry Report consists of Canadian companies active in Rubber & Plastics, Fabricated Metals, Milling & Building Products, Industrial & Commercial Machinery, Transportation Equipment, and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Average Industry Revenue Growth chart
Average Gross Profit and EBITDA Margins chart
 

Market Dashboard

Year-to-date returns as of June 30, 2026
S&P/TSX Composite Index
+9.9%
Whitehorn Manufacturing Index
+16.7%
S&P 500
+9.6%
Key Quarterly Highlights
April 15
According to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), business exits outpaced business entries in Canada for the sixth consecutive quarter.
May 4
The federal government launches a $1B loan program for steel, aluminum and copper businesses affected by U.S. tariffs through the BDC. 3-year loans between $2MM and $50MM will be provided (interest-free in year 1, principal free until maturity).
June 10
The Bank of Canada maintained its key interest rate at 2.25%, the fifth consecutive rate hold.
July 1
The US, as expected, elects to not renew CUSMA for an additional 16 years.
 

How Canada Lost its Manufacturing Backbone & Optimism for Rebound

Canadian manufacturing seems to have stalled. The sector's share relative to total GDP output has shrunk from 29% in the post WWII era to 8.5% today. Manufacturing activities also fell in the 21st century, predominantly driven by globalization and the increase in offshore manufacturing. However, we are seeing some optimistic signs of a rebound in the sector more recently, which we dive into further below.

A. Tracing the Historical Decline

Manufacturing was once the engine of the Canadian economy. Throughout the 20th century, manufacturing outputs were strong nationwide. However, since the turn of the century, other sectors such as oil & gas, homebuilding and financial services grew faster and outpaced manufacturing growth. Real manufacturing output diverged sharply from the rest of the economy since the 2000s, as seen in the chart below.

29.0%
Manufacturing share of GDP in 1944
8.5%
Est. manufacturing share of GDP in 2025
-2.6%
Manufacturing output, 2025 YoY
40,600
Manufacturing jobs lost nationwide in 2025

Source: Statistics Canada – GDP by industry; Statistics Canada – Manufacturing Labour 2025.

Manufacturing vs Business Sector Output Index chart

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM tables 383-0021 and 379-0031, and authors' calculations.

From 1961 to 2000, Canadian manufacturing grew at essentially the same rate as the overall business sector. After 2000, that changed — real manufacturing output stalled while the broader economy kept expanding. By 2016, the business sector was 35% above its 2000 level. Manufacturing was just 11% above it — and still below its pre-recession peak in several industries.

B. Manufacturing GDP: The Current Picture

In nominal dollar terms, Canadian manufacturing has grown significantly driven by inflation, population growth, and expanded trade. However, the nominal growth does mask a harsh reality: the structural pace of growth slowed sharply in the 2000s and the sector has been relatively flat in real terms for the last two decades.

Era Character of growth Description
1960s–1970s Strong real growth Manufacturing and business sector grow in lockstep. Trade liberalization and strong US demand drive output gains.
1980s–1990s Inflation + real expansion Nominal numbers surge on inflation. Real output also grows, aided by the free trade agreement (1989) and a weaker Canadian dollar through the 1990s.
2000–2007 Real growth stalls Nominal values breach $200B CAD on strong automotive and resource prices. But real manufacturing output grows just 0.7%/yr — a fraction of the US rate (3.1%/yr). Tech bubble burst, rising dollar, and global competition bite hard.
2008–2010 Sharp contraction The 2008–09 recession hits manufacturing 5x harder than the broader business sector (-9.6% vs. -2% annual avg.). Transportation equipment collapses -32%. Recovery takes 6 years — the slowest since tracking began.
2010–present Structural friction Nominal output fluctuates between $170B and $210B CAD depending on global commodity prices, currency strength, and trade conditions. Real output remains essentially flat. In 2025, manufacturing contracted 2.6% — its 3rd consecutive annual decline.

Sources: Statistics Canada — Real Growth of Canadian Manufacturing Since 2000 (Cat. 11-626-X, 2017); Trading Economics Canada Manufacturing GDP Portal; Statistics Canada Table 36-10-4340-6; Statistics Canada GDP by Industry (2025-26 releases).

As of March 2026, Canadian GDP for the manufacturing sector was $198.73B (-2.5% year over year).
Prior to May 2025 ($199.5B), the last time manufacturing GDP fell below $200B outside of COVID was in April 2014.
Canadian Monthly Manufacturing GDP chart

Source: Statistics Canada - GDP by industry.

In real terms, the Canadian manufacturing sector has been essentially flat for over two decades. Manufacturing's share of Canadian GDP has been relatively declining, driven primarily by global trade shifts.

C. Root Causes

We now investigate the two key factors behind the drastic decline: failure in trade policy and underinvestment.

1. Failure in Trade Policy
  • Since the 1960s, free trade opened Canada to lower-cost, offshore competitors.
  • Canada lacked a national response to protect and grow capacity.
  • As manufacturing retreated, we invested significantly in real estate and financial services instead.
Top 5 Canadian GDP by Sector chart

The problem is, new houses and condos do not generate export revenue, R&D, or compounding productivity gains.

1 in every 4 dollars
of Canadian GDP is generated from housing, property transactions or financing.
2. Underinvestment

How much does Canada spend as a % of GDP on R&D? The results are frankly embarrassing:

Percent of GDP spend on R&D chart

Materially lagging our peers in investing in machinery, automation and R&D have widened our productivity gap over the years.

Canada spends $0.55 for every dollar the U.S. spends on business investment per worker in 2025.

Source: C.D. Howe Institute (Jan 2025); corroborated by Montreal Economic Institute (Jun 2026) and Fraser Institute (2023).

 
D. Potential Rebound

It seems like forever ago where policy, capital and geopolitics were aligned in favour of Canadian manufacturing. After decades of neglect, federal policy seems to be pivoting towards a robust domestic industrial strategy, which we cover a few below:

1. 🛡️ Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS)
Description
  • $6.6B over 5 years to shift Canadian reliance on international military suppliers.
  • Build > Partner > Buy strategy prioritizing military equipment manufactured domestically.
Objectives
  • 125,000 new jobs
  • 70% defence procurement contracts awarded to Canadian firms
2. ⛏️ Critical Minerals Strategy
Description
  • $1.5B (2026-2030) to build infrastructure to unlock remote deposits.
  • $43MM to stockpile dual-use defence materials and develop advanced manufacturing capabilities for NATO and domestic military use.
Objectives
  • Shifting Canada from raw mineral extraction to midstream processing and refining.
  • Boost supply chain leverage with allies.
3. 💰 Regional Defence Investment Initiative (RDII)
Description
  • $358MM over 3 years on select focused areas: cybersecurity compliance, precision tooling, defence sector onboarding.
  • Complemented by the BDC Defence Platform, a $6B capital program offering loans, venture capital and specialized advisory to Canadian businesses.
Objectives
  • Transition local manufacturers into qualified defence suppliers.
4. 🏗️ Nation-building Infrastructure Agenda
Description
  • $70B in public investment across transport, construction and infrastructure projects supporting Canadian-made products.
  • $45B dedicated to enabling trade corridors, Arctic ports, and raw materials processing.
Objectives
  • Derisk infrastructure projects, fast track resource extraction, and reduce economic dependency on other nations.
  • Cutting regulatory timelines from 5 years to 2 years.
 
E. What does this Mean for Canadian Manufacturers

The window of opportunity exists for Canadian manufacturers today. Here is what private manufacturers can do today:

1. Position for defence & infrastructure contracts
  • DIS aims to award 70% of federal defence contracts to Canadian SMBs (up from current 43%).
  • Favourable manufacturing areas: fabricated metals, precision components, materials processing.
  • Seek Controlled Goods Program registration and other clearance required to partake in defence contracts.
2. Access capital now
  • RDII, BDC and additional SR&ED claims provide accessible capital for your manufacturing business.
  • Utilize government funding programs to procure equipment, pursue acquisitions, and fund other strategic initiatives.
3. M&A and consolidation focused
  • In H1 2026, we observed private equity and family offices willing to offer premium multiples for SMBs with defence and infrastructure exposure.
  • Strategic groups are also actively pursuing complementary offerings and enhancing supply chains to better position for the manufacturing revival.
  • If you are considering a sale, talk to us today on how to prepare your business for a stronger exit.

Select Merger & Acquisition Transactions

Notable Canadian manufacturing transactions this past quarter.

Apr. 2026
Metrie (Vancouver, BC) acquired Certain assets of Northstar/TruBilt Doors (St. Thomas, ON)
Acquisition of door fabrication, hanging and finishing assets in Eastern Canada from division of Cornerstone Building Brands to expand door manufacturing and service capabilities.
Apr. 2026
PFM Capital and BDC Growth Equity Partners (Canada) acquired West Coast Machinery (Langley, BC)
Acquisition of manufacturer and distributor of custom service truck bodies and hydraulic excavator attachments via Work Truck West and ShearForce Equipment.
May 2026
Maverick Aviation Group (Sherwood Park, AB) acquired Genaire (Niagara, ON)
Acquisition of aerospace engineering and manufacturing company specializing in aircraft fuel systems, ground support equipment and OEM to expand national footprint and technical capabilities.
June 2026
Decisive Dividend (TSXV:DE) (Kelowna, BC) acquired Be Fire (Belgium)
$19.9MM acquisition of specialty hearth manufacturer of wood-burning stoves, fireplaces, and fireplace inserts as add-on to its hearth vertical.
June 2026
Canfor (TSX:CFP) (Vancouver, BC) acquired CanPinkwood's I-joist business (Calgary, AB)
$8MM acquisition of engineered wood joists manufacturer for residential, multi-family, and commercial construction.
June 2026
Buhler Versatile (Winnipeg, MB) acquired ATLAS Group (Germany)
Acquisition of German construction machinery manufacturer to strengthen European market position.
June 2026
TerraVest Industries (TSX:TVK) (Toronto, ON) acquired Jet Peinture Plus (Quebec City, QC)
Acquisition of company specializing in propane tank refurbishment and tank recertification.
June 2026
Ballard Power Systems (TSX:BLDP) (Vancouver, BC) acquired GeoPura (United Kingdom)
£301MM acquisition of zero-emission hydrogen-based power solutions provider to increase end-to-end capabilities.

Check out more transactions on our website.

Subsector Q2 2026 Q1 2026
Rubber & Plastics 6 3
Fabricated Metals, Milling & Building Products 6 10
Industrial & Commercial Machinery 11 9
Transportation Equipment 16 9
Miscellaneous Manufacturing 28 21
Total 67 52
+29%
Q2 2026 vs. Q1 2026
-23%
Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025

Let's talk about your next move.

Whitehorn Capital provides corporate finance and advisory services to Western Canadian private manufacturing companies. To discuss this quarter's findings, reach our team below.

Phone
587 889 4366
Podcast
Whitehorn Expert
Ray Chia, CFA
Address
3332 20 St SW Suite 406, Calgary, AB T2T 6S1

All financial data has been sourced from LSEG Workspace. This report is prepared by Whitehorn Capital Inc. for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice. Figures may include forecasts and are subject to change without notice.