Market Dashboard
Returns from January 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026.
S&P/TSX Composite Index
▲+10.3%
Year to date
S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index
▲+24.2%
Year to date
Whitehorn Energy Services Index
▲+26.0%
Year to date
Key Quarterly Highlights
Apr. 14
The federal government temporarily suspends the federal fuel excise tax on gas and diesel from April 20th until September 7th, citing the impact of the Middle East war on global oil and gas prices.
Apr. 27
Shell plc announces the $22B acquisition of ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX:ARX) to complement its existing Canadian footprint in the Montney.
May 12
The federal government proposes a 12-month period for all federal reviews and decision-making timelines on major projects.
Jun. 10
The Trans Mountain pipeline hits full capacity of 890,000 bpd, the first time since its major expansion was completed in 2024.
Jun. 29
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, crude oil reserves at the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 5MM bbls to 325.7MM bbls, the lowest level since May 1983.
Jul. 2
The Alberta government is partnering with Trans Mountain Corp. and Pembina Pipeline Corp. to build a new pipeline from Bruderheim, AB to Delta, BC. The proposed pipeline is expected to transport 1MM bpd to the BC coast, which would then be shipped to Asian end markets.
Performance Trends
Average revenue growth and margin outlook by sub-sector.
Average Revenue Growth by Segment
Average EBITDA Margin by Segment
Source: LSEG Workspace.
Higher Oil, Weaker Loonie. Why the Old Rule Broke.
For decades, economists could read the strength of the Canadian dollar from global oil prices. The higher oil prices were, the stronger the Loonie. However, this relationship has been fractured in more recent years. We dive into what has changed, what's driving the change, and what it means for your business through 2026 and entering 2027.
Past: The Loonie Moved with Oil (2000–2017)
0.9258
Correlation
Jan 2000 – Dec 2017
What does this mean?
Oil up = CAD strong; Oil down = CAD weak
·Historically, the Canadian dollar acted as a prominent commodity currency.
·As crude oil represents a foundational share of our exports to our largest trading partner south of the border, the CAD/USD FX rate was naturally responsive to WTI movements.
·When oil prices rose, a combination of capital inflow to the Canadian energy sector and the demand for Canadian oil would boost CAD demand.
·On the other hand, global oil oversupply or demand collapses, as evident in 2008 and 2014, typically led to a CAD depreciation.
Current: The Divorcing Couple
The CAD/USD FX rate and WTI crude oil pricing were the perfect market couple. Then, the relationship broke in 2018.
0.1102
Correlation
Jan 2018 – May 2026
What does this mean?
Unable to predict CAD strength based on oil prices.
·This timeframe demonstrates high volatility.
·The 2020 COVID shock reduced global demand dramatically, dragging the CAD down with it.
·Since then, we observe a structural decoupling between the two:
–The global oil supply shock in 2022 led to WTI exceeding US$110/bbl. However, the Loonie failed to return to parity with the USD at that time.
–WTI prices stabilized by 2023 and onward. However, the Loonie began a trend of depreciating against the USD over the last three years.
–In Q2 2026, WTI was near US$80 per bbl. Yet CAD/USD was trading close to 0.7143, a level historically associated with lower oil prices.
Why the Correlation Broke
Below, we review three factors behind the Loonie decoupling from oil prices since 2018:
01
U.S. Becomes Top Global Crude Producer
U.S. crude production doubled over the last decade, becoming the world's largest producer in 2018. That eliminated import needs and reversed the old dynamic — higher oil now supports the USD as much as the CAD, and rising global USD demand for crude adds further support.
02
Monetary Policy Divergence Between BofC and the Fed
From 2023–2025 the Bank of Canada held rates below the Fed, then cut faster in 2024–2025 amid housing-driven sensitivity, widening the rate gap. That gap, plus CUSMA uncertainty, keeps investors biased toward the USD.
03
Shifting Investment Dynamics for Canadian Energy
Pre-2018, higher oil drew foreign direct investment into Canadian projects, lifting CAD demand. Since then, producers have pivoted from growth capex to capital discipline — debt reduction, buybacks and dividends — while pipeline constraints and rising ESG compliance costs mute the domestic sector.
What This Means for Canadian Energy Services Companies
With the CAD-USD correlation shifted, Canadian energy services providers can leverage the discounted dollar to pursue growth in the U.S. market — there is strong demand abroad, especially in the U.S., for Canadian oilfield expertise.
There is also a stronger case for FX hedging today: the natural hedge of "higher oil, stronger CAD" is gone. Hedging U.S. labour and raw-material procurement helps protect margins from FX uncertainty.
Opportunities on the Horizon
For years, the Canadian energy sector has operated under a cloud of "false hope." It has navigated regulatory deadlocks, cancelled projects, and tightening environmental policies. However, we observed several developments during Q2 that appear to be converting plans into commercial reality.
A · Domestic — Midstream & Infrastructure
Heartland NGL Extraction Plant - Pembina Pipeline
$570MM · Target 2029
850MMcf/d straddle plant to extract NGL; FID approved, construction underway.
NGL Fractionation Facility, Fort Saskatchewan - CSV Midstream Solutions
CapEx TBD · Target 2029
35,000 bpd of NGL fractionate capacity; FID expected early 2027.
Alberta Corridor Export (ACE) Rail Terminal - Keyera, AltaGas, CN Rail
$240MM · Mid-2028
Keyera-owned rail terminal in Fort Saskatchewan linked to CN's rail network and AltaGas' west coast export platform.
New West Coast Oil Pipeline
CapEx TBD · 2033
1MM bpd capacity targeted; construction approval targeted by Sep. 2027.
B · LNG Export — Asia & Europe
LNG Canada Phase II Expansion - Shell
$33B · Early 2030s
Shell working toward FID by end of 2026 to double capacity to 28 MTPA for Asian exports.
Kanata LNG - Kanata, Hanwha Ocean
US$15.7B · TBD
Floating LNG export project in Prince Rupert, BC, with 12 MTPA expected capacity; currently non-binding.
Ksi Lisims LNG
$10B · 2028/2029
Floating LNG project on Pearse Island, BC (12 MTPA); 20-year, 1 MTPA supply agreement with Germany's SEFE.
C · International Market Access
Bay du Nord Offshore Project - Equinor, BP
$14B · 2031
500km east of St. John's, NL; FID in 2027, expected to yield 400MM boe.
Bridger Pipeline Expansion - Bridger Pipeline, South Bow
US$2B · TBD
1,038km pipeline moving 550,000 boe/d from the Canada-U.S. border in MT to Guernsey, WY; revives portions of the defunct Keystone XL.
Alberta–South Korea Crude Tariff Waiver
In effect
Waived 3% tariff on crude and bitumen exports to South Korea, aiming to grow exports from $400MM to $1B annually.
Select Merger & Acquisition Transactions
Notable Canadian energy services transactions, Q2 2026.
Date
Acquirer
Target
Description
Apr. 2026
GFL Environmental
Vaughan, ON
SECURE Waste Infrastructure
Calgary, AB
$6.4B acquisition of a Western Canada / North Dakota waste management platform (2,000 employees, 12 landfills, 55 treatment facilities).
Apr. 2026
FyterTech Nonwovens
De Pere, WI
Spill Solutions Canada
Calgary, AB
Acquisition of a spill control and containment solutions provider to expand Canadian presence.
Apr. 2026
AKITA Drilling
Calgary, AB
Fox Drilling Partnership
Calgary, AB
Acquisition of Paramount Resources' stake in a six-rig triple drilling contractor in the WCSB.
May 2026
ZenaTech
Vancouver, BC
Undisclosed surveying & geomatics co.
Alberta
Acquisition of a drone-based land surveying and geomatics provider across three Western Canadian provinces.
May 2026
TerraVest Industries
Toronto, ON
Canadian assets of Colter Energy
Okotoks, AB
Acquisition of a flow-back and production testing equipment and services provider.
May 2026
Medallion Energy Services
Grande Prairie, AB
Nexsource Power E&I division
Red Deer, AB
Acquisition of Nexsource's electrical & instrumentation division, expanding footprint in Edmonton, Red Deer and Drayton Valley.
Jun. 2026
Keyera
Calgary, AB
KAPS Pipeline
Alberta
$1.215B acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in the KAPS Pipeline linking the Montney/Duvernay to downstream markets.
Jun. 2026
Red Pheasant Cree Nation
Eagle Hills, SK
L&L Oilfield Construction
Lloydminster, SK
Acquisition of a 70% stake in an oilfield construction, maintenance, welding and fabrication services provider.
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